Understanding Syria; Background and Perspective on the Demands for Change.

Understanding Syria – The Basics

As the Arab world is swept with revolutionary fervor it is becoming more difficult to ascertain the nuances in each nation. 

Yes, people across the Arab world share the collective experiences of living under authoritative regimes, repressive security establishments, failed & corrupt bureaucracies. However, every country faces its unique local and geopolitical challenges.

This is extremely evident in Syria, where so many people, who up until a few weeks ago were screaming for revolution in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and beyond have suddenly gone quiet. Or even more surprisingly: They became “pro-regime”.

Here is some quick insight into further understanding Syria:

The so-called “Reformer” President

The young President Bashar Assad ‘inherited’ Syria in July 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, who ruled Syria as a police state for 30 years.  At the age of 34, Bashar, an ophthalmologist, was thrust into power through the regime’s nomination, rubberstamped by referendum vote of over 97% (according to government stats). Note that The President’s age requirement in the Syrian constitution was changed from 40 to 34 to allow for this nomination.

Bashar has done a very good job posturing as a would-be reformist, a young man connected to “his” people. He is regularly seen doing ‘normal’ things; like buying ice cream at the local shops, driving around in main squares in Damascus, or even attending theater productions with his fashionable wife.

His PR machine has effectively separated himself from the problems of the nation. While positioning himself as a reformer – the ‘old guard’ or ‘the security establishment’, effectively the unseen establishment, is typically to blame for slowing down reforms, or leading punishing crackdowns against the Syrian people. Unfortunately, this could not be further than the truth – regardless of how much true power Bashar has, he is the symbol of a family ‘mafia’ that runs Syria – he is the figurehead for the family business; the ‘trade’ is the resources and people of Syria.

This PR has had profound effect on Syrian youth – 35% of Syrians are under the age of 15. Whereas the youth of Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen connected the corruption and lack of freedoms to their aging dictators, this perspective isn’t as widespread throughout Syrian youth –Here, a cult of personality exists; many have literally grown up with him and have been taught from a young age the ‘virtues’ of the president.

The Blood of his Father

The single most deadliest act that any Arab regime ever committed against its people over the past 60 years took place in February 1982 in the city of Hama, following protests and massacres in various cities and towns. Ordered by President Assad, the father, and implemented by his brother Rifaat, the inhabitants of Hama were systematically massacred in response to rebellion. As Rifaat later bragged, no less than 38,0000 residents (of a city of 150,000 people at the time) were killed.

After the massacre an amusement park was built on top of the graves of the dead.

The lesson of Hama for the regime has been if you kill enough people, there would be no one left to oppose you; those left alive will be silent and you would be guaranteed a few decades of rule.  As for the Syrian people, the lesson was that the regime would stop at nothing to ensure its survival.

The last 10 years have been relatively stable compared to the 1980s and Bashar isn’t seen by many to be as brutal as his father – there is relatively no blood on his hands (of course, until Dara’a.)

This is in stark contrast to other Arab nations, where the longevity of the dictators’ rule has been predicated on their ability to brutalize their opposition. 

The Ultimate Security State

In one of the worst regions for human rights, Syria is known to be the worst.

With the Syrian Emergency law formally suspending all constitutional protections for the past 48 years, a culture of fear exists that can be compared to Stalinist Russia, Saddam’s Iraq or the two Kims’ North Korea.

The constitution itself creates a second class status for most Syrians by simply declaring the Ba’ath party ‘Leader of State and Society’ (Article 8). Non-Ba’athists are simply serfs in the estate “inherited” by Bashar from his father. Mind you, the party itself is only an administrative tool for the Security State.

Actually the Emergency law, recently repealed by Bashar (April 2011) as an empty concession to the ongoing protests is not really the problem. It is the security invasion of every aspect of life. With or without emergency laws.

State security, the feared ‘mokhabarat’, is above the law and citizens are routinely arrested and tortured without cause or due process; ‘disappearances’ are widespread (some estimates are of ~20,000 people disappeared). Extra-judicial killings are common practice by State security.

Censorship is so ingrained that most conduct self-censorship and there is absolutely no public discourse regarding internal Syrian politics, for fear of fierce retribution by the Security State.

This is even evident online: Whereas facebook and twitter have been fantastic tools for the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions, they have had the opposite effect in Syria, where the regime has launched a social media campaign to intimidate anyone who stands against the regime.

An example of the absurdity of Syrian security is how teenage blogger, Tal al-Mallouhi, was arrested in 2009, and recently sentenced to 5 years in prison for "revealing information that should remain hushed to a foreign country".

A day after the emergency law was repealed, more than 80 protesters were shot dead around the country. This level of violence towards unarmed protesters has even outdone Qhaddafi and Saleh in Yemen .

A Dependent Army

The Syrian army has seen better days – it is a long time since 1973 (October war). Actually, the Syrian army has been bastardized into an institution wholly dependent on the ruling elite of Bashar and his regime, and only competent in crowd control and smuggling.

The mass conscript army is poorly trained and equipped. The true power lies with the Republican guard and special forces – highly skilled fighting machines which have been positioned effectively across the country to quell any protest against the regime. Bashar’s younger brother, for example, heads the republican guard, and his forces were instrumental in crushing the first protests in Dara'a in March.

While, in Tunisia and Egypt, we saw the ‘Army’ as independent power brokers turning on their dictators when they no longer served their institutional interests, this would hardly be the case in Syria as the army is tightly controlled by Bashar’s family and power base.

Sectarian Discourse

The Assad regime rose to, and held to power by infusing the power structures in Syria with individuals from their own religious minority sect (Alawites). Representing ~10 % of the population they are a large religious minority group that has effectively ruled over the rest of the population, including the ~75% Sunnis, for the past 40 years.

The fear of sectarian strife runs deep in the minds of Syrians – with a history of brutal minority rule, civil wars in Lebanon and Iraq on either side. The regime has played up this fear by assuring the nation that only they can ensure stability and avoid sectarian chaos.

This of course couldn’t be further from the truth as the regime has used sectarian divides to quell the protests – Alawite military units, militias and gangs (Shabeha) have been used against Sunni protesters and a campaign has been launched to play up the ‘Islamic (Sunni) menace’ to ensure that other minorities rely on the regime to uphold law and order.

Relative Stability and Corruption

The last ten years have been relatively stable economically and politically for Syria – with that said, unemployment is high at ~20%, 70% of Syria’s workforce live on less than $70 a month. This is in stark contrast to the enormous wealth accumulated by those in the regime.

Corruption seeps into every aspect of Syrian life, and absolutely nothing – from business to government paperwork can be fulfilled without a bribe. This corruption has created a system of abuse whereas everyone from civil servants to the police have to fish for bribes to feed their families as they are grossly under paid – while the elite of the regime thrives under unfair personal business advantages. 

This is best personified by the example of Rami Makhlouf – the cousin of Bashar, who is one of the richest men in the world. Syria's resources are his personal ‘gold mine’ – he controls Syria's mobile network, Syriatel, in addition to his domination in other industries (gas, oil, and banking sectors).  No major business venture can be conducted without his sign off.

While this corruption is shared across the Arab world, the key for any change in Syria is to ensure that the traditional Sunni merchant class in areas such as Aleppo and Damascus is activated – when they move politically, regimes change. They have been effectively bought out and have enjoyed relative success over the past decade, thus minimizing the gripes of a major segment of Syrian society.

What Opposition?

More than any other Arab nation, there is a lack of organized opposition in Syria, whether in or out of the country. This has been a major success for the regime. Brutality pays: Over the past 40 years, through massacre, human rights violation, the culture of fear, sectarian divisions, military and political impotency, there are no institutions or networks that can be used as a means to oppose the regime.

The religious opposition was effectively wiped out in the 1980s, the secular opposition is part of the Ba’ath associated party structure and there is no internal military option (as we saw in Tunisia, Egypt, or even Libya).

This has effectively created a scenario where today’s opposition is truly in its infancy, without the years of development, maturity of other opposition movements in other nations (i.e. unions in Egypt). What we see in the streets is the spontaneous popular response to all that.

Myth of Resistance

Syrians are proud proponents of Arab nationalism, the Palestinian cause and opposition to Western and Israeli hegemony in the region.

The Assad regime has successfully aligned their public narrative with the desires of the people, hence creating the illusion both internally and across the Arab world that they are brave protectors of the ‘Arab ideals’.

With that said, more bullets have been fired at Syrian protesters in any single day in the last five weeks than on the Golan front over the past 40 years. The Assad regime has gladly collaborated with the US to support the so called ‘war on terror’, and more Lebanese were killed in the past twenty years by Syrians than by Israelis.

Bottom-line, while publicly espousing the principles of Arab nationalism, the regime has been extremely pragmatic to ensure only its own survival and security. Despite this, the outcry from other Arab nations with regard to the daily carnage by the regime in Syria has been muted relative to what we've seen in other Arab nations.

Isolation and Iran

Over the past ten years Syria has been isolated politically from the west and other Arab nations (i.e. Saudi and Egypt) and has developed even deeper ties with its ally Iran.

This alliance is based on sectarian affinity and goes back to the consolidation of Assad’s power – if you recall, he shrewdly supported Iran against the rival Ba’athists in Iraq (the lone Arab country to do so) during the bloody 8-year war. This was a strategic move to remove the regime’s insecurity being “alone” surrounded in a Sunni-majority environment.

Furthermore, it is critical to Iran’s regional security to ensure the survival of the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime is a conduit for Iranian influence in the region, and enables connectivity with their Lebanese proxies and allies.

Prior to the recent waves of protest, Iran sent a military ship through the Suez canal to Syria (for the first time since the 1979 revolution) to deploy military personnel for ‘training’ exercises in Syria. This serves the dual purpose of a hand’s-on defense of their allies, and provides a foreign presence on the ground that has no loyalties other than to the regime.

Additionally, the regime is using this isolation from western nations to galvanize the people around it against the foreign threat. We’ve seen recently how many have believed the regime’s claims that the protesters are part of a Western/Israeli conspiracy.

Ironically, there is a foreign element. However it comes from the east, not the west.

Conclusion

The points outlined above provides context as to why there is a broad range of diverse opinion across Syrian society; both pro and anti-regime. Over the past month however, the pro-regime voices have been amplified as much of Syrian society still hasn’t crossed the line of fear – most are still paralyzed by fear; either of chaos, or retribution by the regime.

However, as the regime continues to murder, arrest and brutalize those who are speaking out, they convert more and more people to the cause of their overthrow.

The key questions is how much longer can the regime hold on to their power grip, what their threshold for violence is and what the tipping point is for the masses of Syrians to take to the streets. We should not expect a quick turn of events as we saw in the Tunisian or Egyptian revolutions. Neither another Libya with two de facto governments, a civil war and Western intervention.

While the future is unclear, for the near-term, the following must be demanded:

1. Stop the killing now – there is no excuse for shooting unarmed protestors. Period.
2. Stop the arrest campaign unleashed since March and grossly intensified today. Release all political prisoners (some 15,000 of them). No-one should be in prison merely for their ideas and opposition to the regime
3. Dismantle the illegal state security courts which allow for unjustified detentions and abuse
4. Remove the ‘mokhabarat’ & military from the cities, and allow regular police to maintain order
5. Compensate the families of those murdered
6. Issue decrees guaranteeing the right for public protest and discourse
7. Amend the constitution to accommodate multi-party leadership (outside of the Ba’ath)
8. Allow outside observers and foreign media to enter the country

This is just the beginning – a springboard to enable true reform and peoples representation in the nation. To avoid and delay this will merely create a deeper divide among Syrians and polarize the nation.

The Syrian people in the streets have said it clearly: Al-Shaab Al-sooree Wahid. Wahid, Wahid, Wahid! The Syrian People are one. One, One, One!

The future will ensure ONE Syria. Non-sectarian with freedom and dignity. A nation to represent all the people of Syria, equally.